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Understand the markets. Interpret the signals. Explore what happens next.
Prediction markets bring together different perspectives about future events and express those expectations through market prices. SignalMarkets is built around helping people explore those signals and consider how real-world developments may connect to broader market consequences.
Whether you are new to prediction markets or looking to deepen your understanding, this page provides educational resources to help you understand the fundamentals, interpret market-implied probabilities, and explore the relationship between events and markets.
Start with the basics, learn how to read a market signal, or explore how an event may connect to potential consequences across industries and assets.
Learn what prediction markets are, how event-based contracts work, and how market prices can reflect participants' collective expectations about future outcomes.
Prediction markets allow participants to trade event contracts tied to defined outcomes. Contract prices reflect current market-implied probabilities. A position may be held to settlement or, when liquidity permits, sold earlier.
Discover how a market price can be interpreted as an implied probability, why that probability can change, and why a market signal should not be mistaken for a guarantee.
A contract priced at 68¢ suggests an approximately 68% market-implied probability of its specified outcome. The price reflects current trading expectations, not a guarantee; even high-probability outcomes can fail to occur.
Explore how new information, changing expectations, and the balance of buying and selling interest can influence market prices. Learn why prices represent market expectations at a point in time, rather than certainty about what will happen.
Prices respond to economic releases, policy announcements, corporate news, and changing buying and selling interest. Liquidity matters: a thinly traded contract can move sharply and may be difficult to exit at the desired price.
From real-world events to market consequences
Events rarely exist in isolation. An election, economic release, policy decision, or corporate development may have implications across multiple sectors and asset classes.
SignalMarkets uses the concept of a Signal Chain to connect an event with possible consequences, helping users explore how one development may relate to other markets.
A Signal Chain connects an event to potential consequences across industries and assets. It offers a structured way to explore possible relationships. For example, how an election outcome could influence policy expectations and, in turn, affect market sentiment around interest rates, energy, or digital assets.
These relationships are analytical possibilities, not predictions of guaranteed outcomes. Actual market responses can differ from expectations, and multiple factors may influence any asset or market.
Explore Signal ChainsIdentify a real-world development or outcome.
Explore the ways that event could influence policy, economic conditions, business activity, or market expectations.
Consider which sectors may be affected by those developments.
Explore how expectations surrounding those sectors could relate to particular asset classes or markets.
Dig into our educational resources organized around the types of events and market questions you may encounter.
Understand economic indicators, central-bank decisions, inflation, employment, and other developments that can influence expectations about the economy.
Learn about financial-market concepts, market expectations, and the ways economic or policy developments may relate to broader financial conditions.
Start with interest rates and Federal Reserve decisions; inflation and employment; Treasury yields; equity-market expectations; and portfolio hedging with event contracts.
Explore how company announcements, business developments, and corporate milestones can shape expectations about future outcomes.
Explore how company announcements, earnings reports, leadership changes, product launches, and major business developments can shape expectations about a company's future performance and influence related market outcomes.
Understand how election outcomes, legislative control, and policy expectations can be connected to potential market consequences.
Election outcomes, control of Congress, policy changes, and their potential financial consequences. Changing expectations about taxes, regulation, energy policy, or interest rates may affect linked event contracts. These are possible relationships, not assured market reactions.
Learn about climate-related events, policy developments, and the questions that may connect them to economic or market outcomes.
Explore how climate-related events, environmental policies, extreme weather, and energy transitions can influence economic conditions, industry developments, and market expectations.
Digital-asset developments may influence broader financial-market expectations. SignalMarkets focuses primarily on economic, financial, corporate, and political event contracts; digital assets are not a core focus.
How major digital-asset policy or market developments can affect financial expectations. Our partner offers broader crypto-related products; SignalMarkets will feature only a limited selection, if available.
Portfolio hedging is one of the primary reasons SignalMarkets was created.
A Signal Chain helps investors evaluate how an event, such as an inflation surprise, may change Federal Reserve expectations, Treasury-yield expectations, and related market outcomes. Relevant contracts may help offset specific risks, but no hedge is guaranteed to work and trading can result in losses.
Signal Chains and portfolio risk
SignalMarkets focuses on financially relevant event contracts and does not offer sports contracts, and will never offer them. Its investing orientation emphasizes understanding probabilities, trading changing expectations, and exploring potential ways to hedge economic, financial, or political exposures.
Before participating in a prediction market, it's important to understand more than the question being asked. Take time to review the contract's wording, the conditions that determine its outcome, the applicable resolution source, and any relevant fees or risks.
Market prices can change as information and expectations evolve. An implied probability is not a promise, and even an outcome that appears highly likely may not occur. Depending on the contract and applicable terms, you may lose the amount you put at risk.
For platform-specific instructions, visit our Help Center. For the rules and conditions governing a particular market, consult the market's official details and applicable disclosures.
Have questions about SignalMarkets? Visit our FAQ page.
Read the FAQWant to explore current market questions? Browse Markets to see the markets available on SignalMarkets.
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