Frequently asked questions.

SignalMarkets is a prediction-market platform where participants can trade contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events, including economic data, central bank decisions, elections, corporate announcements and technology milestones. Each market presents a defined question, and its contract price reflects the market's current implied probability of an outcome.

SignalMarkets is for anyone interested in financial markets, understanding how real-world events affect the economy, and exploring opportunities to potentially earn financial returns.

Whether you're a first-time trader, an individual investor, a high-net-worth individual, or a professional portfolio manager, SignalMarkets is designed to make sophisticated financial concepts easier to understand and act upon.

Created by experienced asset managers and accomplished academics, SignalMarkets brings institutional-quality thinking to a broader audience. Our proprietary Signal Chains help users understand how information flows through financial markets, how probabilities change, and where potential trading and hedging opportunities may emerge.

Prediction markets are transforming how people participate in financial markets, opening opportunities that extend far beyond traditional sports contracts. SignalMarkets focuses on economic events, financial markets, corporate developments, and public policy, providing a broader range of opportunities to pursue financial returns, manage investment risk, and hedge portfolios.

Our mission is simple: make sophisticated financial strategies understandable and accessible to everyone, from curious beginners to experienced professionals.

No prior prediction-market experience is required. Trading is subject to eligibility requirements and involves financial risk.

Yes. Portfolio hedging is one of the primary reasons SignalMarkets was created.

SignalMarkets was conceived and designed by experienced professional asset managers and accomplished academics who understand the challenges of protecting investment portfolios against economic, financial, and political uncertainty.

Unlike traditional prediction markets that focus primarily on forecasting individual events, SignalMarkets is designed to help investors understand and trade the potential financial consequences of those events.

Through our proprietary Signal Chains, investors can examine how new information flows across interconnected markets, changes outcome probabilities, and creates opportunities to manage risk, hedge portfolio exposures, and potentially profit from market repricing.

For example, investors concerned about inflation, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, or election outcomes can evaluate related event contracts that may help offset specific portfolio risks.

Our objective is to bring institutional-quality financial thinking and risk-management tools to prediction markets, serving everyone from individual investors to professional portfolio managers.

While no hedge is guaranteed to be effective, SignalMarkets is built around a fundamental principle: investors should be able to do more than predict what happens next. They should be able to position their portfolios for it.

Some prediction-market platforms emphasize sports outcomes and use betting-oriented language, which has contributed to public debate about their resemblance to gambling. SignalMarkets takes a different approach. We do not offer sports contracts and will never offer sports contracts. Our platform is dedicated to trading financially relevant event contracts, with an emphasis on investing, portfolio hedging, and understanding the economic consequences of real-world events.

SignalMarkets is designed by experienced asset managers and academics to help participants evaluate changing probabilities, identify potential trading opportunities, and manage financial exposures through our proprietary Signal Chains. Our focus is on financial analysis and informed risk-taking, not sports wagering or betting-oriented entertainment. Event contracts still involve risk, including the possible loss of the full amount invested, and their legal treatment depends on applicable rules and jurisdiction.

SignalMarkets' proprietary edge is its Signal Chain approach: a distinctive framework for understanding how new information can move through a sequence of related events, shift outcome probabilities, and reprice event contracts. Instead of focusing solely on whether one event will occur, Signal Chains help investors evaluate what may happen next, where expectations may adjust, and where opportunities and risks could arise. This is a signature feature of SignalMarkets; the underlying analytical methods remain proprietary.

A Signal Chain lays out a possible path from new information to changing expectations and then to repricing across related event contracts. For example: an inflation surprise → a change in the implied probability of a Federal Reserve decision → a change in expectations for Treasury yields → potential repricing in related financial markets. Each link is a potential decision point, not a guaranteed reaction.

Traditional prediction markets typically present individual questions and the probabilities associated with their outcomes.

SignalMarkets emphasizes the connections between those questions.

An economic announcement may affect interest-rate expectations. Changing interest-rate expectations may influence Treasury yields. Those changes may, in turn, affect expectations about equity markets or other financial outcomes.

By organizing these relationships into a Signal Chain, SignalMarkets helps investors look beyond isolated contracts and evaluate the potential sequence of market reactions.

Investors do not always need to hold a contract until the event settles. They may trade changes in implied probability along the way. For example, a contract purchased for $0.40 and later sold for $0.60 produces a $0.20 gross gain per contract (50% on the initial purchase price), before fees. If its price instead falls to $0.20, the same position incurs a 50% gross loss if sold. Signal Chains are designed to help users evaluate potential repricing as information travels through related markets; they do not guarantee successful trades.

An initial event can change the perceived likelihood of a second outcome, which can in turn affect the prices of contracts linked to a third outcome. A stronger-than-expected inflation report, for example, may change rate-policy expectations, which may affect Treasury-yield expectations and other financial-market outcomes. The direction, size, and timing of each adjustment depend on new information, existing prices, and market liquidity.

A prediction market allows participants to trade contracts based on whether a specific future event will occur. For example, a contract asking whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates may trade at $0.70, suggesting a market-implied probability of approximately 70%. As new information becomes available, participants trade and prices adjust, reflecting changing expectations.

Headlines, opinions and forecasts can point in different directions. SignalMarkets aims to make market-implied probabilities visible and easier to evaluate, giving users another source of information about how expectations are changing.

News reports and polls provide information about events or people's stated views. A prediction market reflects the prices at which participants are willing to trade contracts tied to specified outcomes. Prices may change as information and trading activity change. Each market's rules and resolution source should explain how its outcome will be determined.

No. SignalMarkets is an NFA-approved Guaranteed Introducing Broker (GIB), not an exchange. It provides access to selected event contracts through OG.com and applicable exchange and clearing partners.

Contract prices are expressed in cents. Under the platform's proposed pricing convention, a contract priced at 68¢ represents an implied probability of approximately 68% that the stated outcome will occur. Prices can change as participants trade and new information becomes available.

A Yes contract pays according to the market rules if the specified event occurs; a No contract pays if it does not. In the example described in this FAQ, the winning contract pays $1 and the losing contract pays $0. Prices may move in opposite directions, but displayed prices and payouts are subject to the specific contract's rules.

If you hold a contract until settlement, the payout depends on whether the outcome meets the market's rules. You may also be able to sell a position before settlement, subject to market availability and liquidity. Your result depends on the price you paid, the price you receive if you sell or the settlement payout, and any applicable fees.

Suppose you buy 100 Yes contracts at 40¢ each. The purchase costs $40 before fees. If the event occurs and each contract settles at $1, the payout is $100, for a gross gain of $60 before fees. If the event does not occur and the contracts settle at $0, you lose the $40 purchase cost. If you sell all 100 contracts at 55¢ before settlement, you receive $55 before fees. This example is for illustration only and is not a guarantee of results.

For a fully paid, unleveraged binary contract, the maximum loss is generally the amount paid plus applicable fees.

Prices can change when participants respond to new information, such as economic releases, policy announcements, corporate filings, polls or changing conditions. Price movements reflect trading activity and changing expectations; they do not establish that an outcome will occur.

No, they are not. A market price is an estimate of probability, not certainty. An outcome assigned a 90% implied probability can still fail to occur, and prices can move sharply when new information arrives.

The phrase describes the idea that a group of people with different information and perspectives can sometimes produce useful collective estimates. Prediction markets aggregate participants' views through trading, but market prices can still be affected by limited liquidity, incentives, biases and incomplete information. They are not guaranteed to be more accurate than every individual forecast.

SignalMarkets initially offers selected contracts available through OG.com or applicable partners, focusing on economics, financial markets, companies, politics, commodities, climate, and financially relevant events. SignalMarkets does not offer sports contracts and will never offer sports contracts. Not every partner-listed contract is necessarily available on SignalMarkets. Importantly, SignalMarkets will soon offer proprietary contracts that no other platform provides. This coupled with Signal Chains, provides a unique, proprietary advantage to SignalMarkets. Additional features will soon be announced for added, user benefit.

The applicable exchange lists contracts under its rules. SignalMarkets selects from supported contracts consistent with its financial and economic focus. See the relevant exchange rules for contract specifications.

A Signal Card is the core market display. The proposed design shows the market question, current probability, recent change, supporting information such as volume, and a trading action.

No. SignalMarkets focuses on event contracts rather than direct ownership of stocks, bonds, or other underlying assets.

Browse supported categories or search for an event or topic on the platform. Review the applicable contract rules and trading information before placing an order.

Choose an available contract and outcome, enter the order quantity and price, review estimated charges and the order details, and confirm. Available order types are subject to platform functionality.

In prediction markets contracts trade like financial assets, usually priced between $0.00 and $1.00 which reflects the market's estimated probability of an event occurring. The difference between a market order and a limit order comes down to speed versus price control.

Users may sell a position before settlement while a market is open, subject to liquidity.

Liquidity describes how easily a contract can be bought or sold without substantially affecting its price. In a market with limited liquidity, an order may move the price more significantly, and a user may not be able to exit a position at the desired price.

Trading hours vary by contract and exchange, including any maintenance periods.

Any position limits will be specified within each category section.

SignalMarkets is initially focused on its web-based platform. Supported mobile access should be confirmed on the current website.

Customers pay the applicable published transaction fees for supported contracts. Any applicable charges should be shown in the current customer-facing fee schedule.

Applicable estimated transaction fees should be displayed during order review before confirmation, subject to final platform verification.

Any applicable funding, withdrawal, settlement, or account fees are governed by the current published fee schedule and account documents of the relevant partner.

Settlement charges, if any, depend on the contract and the current published fee schedule. Refer to OG.com or the applicable partner documentation.

Select Get Started, provide the requested details and complete identity verification.

Identity verification can help a platform meet applicable legal and compliance obligations and reduce fraud and unauthorized access.

Follow the funding instructions in your account. Available methods, minimums, charges, and processing times are subject to the relevant clearing-partner procedures.

Use the withdrawal process described in your account documentation. Eligibility, verification, processing times, and any charges are governed by the applicable partner procedures.

SignalMarkets acts as an introducing broker. Customer funds are handled through the applicable futures commission merchant and clearing arrangements.

If a market is voided under its rules, open positions are handled at the price specified in those rules and funds are returned accordingly.

Users can contact support to request account closure and should withdraw any remaining balance first.

Eligible participants who meet applicable age, identity-verification, residence, and jurisdiction requirements may apply.

Eligibility may depend on both residence and physical location.

SignalMarkets is an NFA-approved Guaranteed Introducing Broker operating within the applicable U.S. derivatives regulatory framework.

The tax treatment of trading gains can depend on a user's jurisdiction and individual circumstances. SignalMarkets does not provide tax advice; users should consult a qualified tax professional.

SignalMarkets is focused on financially relevant event contracts rather than sports betting. We do not offer sports contracts and will never offer sports contracts. Legal treatment of event contracts depends on the product and jurisdiction.

Each market should identify the source used to determine its outcome, such as an official government data release, agency announcement or other specified source. Settlement follows the market's published rules. Winning contracts pay $1 and losing contracts paying $0.

Consult the official rules and contract specifications provided.

Payout timing follows the applicable exchange and clearing-partner procedures.

The applicable exchange determines outcomes and handles disputes under its published rules.

Some markets may resolve early if the outcome becomes certain under the applicable rules.

A market may be voided in limited circumstances, such as when its question can no longer be resolved fairly, subject to its published rules.

Event contracts involve financial risk, including the potential loss of the entire amount paid for a position. Market prices represent current expectations, not certainty. Liquidity, fees, eligibility, availability, payout arrangements and resolution rules may vary by contract and jurisdiction. Review the platform's official terms and risk disclosures before participating.

No, it does not. Market prices, probabilities, Signal Chain examples, research and educational content are informational rather than investment, legal or tax advice.

Only participate with money you can afford to lose. Understand the rules and risks of each market before placing a trade, and consider whether a position is appropriate for your financial circumstances. No approach eliminates the risk of loss.

Any available limits or account controls are described in the current platform and partner documentation. Do not assume a particular feature is available unless shown in your account.

If trading is affecting your wellbeing or finances, consider stepping away and seeking appropriate support.

Signal Summit 2026 is a free event taking place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, in Boston and online, featuring live election results, market trading and conversations with prediction-market executives, the SignalMarkets team and partners.

Interested parties can register at signalmarkets.com

Election markets are contracts tied to defined election-related outcomes, such as which party wins control of a legislative chamber. An election hub shows potential connections to sectors such as crypto, energy, interest rates, broad equities, AI and data centers, and defense.

No trading account is required simply to attend. Trading requires an eligible, verified account.

Users should follow the security instructions in their account and protect their credentials. Refer to the platform and applicable partner security disclosures for verified technical safeguards.

Use the official support channel listed on signalmarkets.com or within your account.

Refer to the current legal and disclosure pages on signalmarkets.com for partner rules and fee documentation.